Description:
Can't get more UGLY than Thursday w/ Denver & Stanford both embarrassed at home!
3-0 weekend w/ Best Bets w/ 4 1/2* USC Saturday, 5* Arizona +3 Sunday plus 4 1/2* 49ers +3l.
Maingate Group 9-3 last 12 in RED with 25* loss on Broncos
Sunday Wildcat 10* Miami and 10* Totals Club 10* Atlanta 'OVER'
Kelso connects on 200* Game of Year Saturday w/ Kent State
North Coast hits 5* Fla Atlantic!
Animal 4 1/2* BEST BET hits with USC +11
79-60! Service plays in RED So far in College Football on Modified Consensus. Guys that is 56.8 percent!
Analysis of 5* Arizona +3 and 4 1/2* SF +3:
We've seen the best of Matt Ryan. That was the Super Bowl season when they blew the gigantic lead against New England. Since that defeat the Birds are 6-15 straight-up w/ "Matty Ice." I don't mean to put all the blame on Ryan. The Falcons have problems that could potentially made this team a basement dweller the next five years. They overpaid for Ryan and Julio plus they gave a ransom note for Devonta Freeman and he hasn't produced since Coach Shanahan left for San Francisco. Freeman should be sending Shanahan dividends because the 49ers' head coach is responsible for him getting a big contract along with other Birds. The bottom line is when Shanahan left so did any chance of the Falcons succeeding. They are way too top-heavy in salary for their 'star' players and offensive lineman and haven't paid the defense anything. It doesn't help when guys like Ricardo Allen and Deion Jones are seemingly always hurt. You can get away with a top-heavy offensive payroll providing the stars are producing but when they stop you are in serious trouble. How is a team that has allowed 20 or more points in all five games and 104-points in three straight games (all defeats) be a road favorite? In their last two games the Falcons have been out-rushed 304-115. That's bad when you consider the team that out-gained them last week 166-57 was allegedly without their best running back in Houston's Lamar Miller, out for the season. I think Arizona wins this game because last week the coaching staff finally took the shackles off of Kyler Murray. Last week he and David Johnson each ran for in excess of 90-yards. Plus Murray threw for 253 in the road win at Cincinnati and the Cardinals had over 500-yards in total offense. Atlanta is lifeless right now. Prior to last week what did Deshaun Watson show before the blowout over the Falcons? Watson had five TD passes and 426 yards. This could be the coming out party for Murray, who like Watson, is fairly mobile and will be trying to advance the pigskin against the league's #23 ranked total defense, #20 versus the run, #20 versus the pass, #30 in QB sacks, and -6 in turnovers. The Falcons are also #28 in rushing and my old adage tells me when a team can't run and can't stop the run they should NEVER be a road favorite. Atlanta failed to record a sack last week against Watson and that's pathetic considering he led the league in taking sacks a year ago with 55 and it was just the 2nd time in his career he went sack-free for an entire game. That's a real reflection on how bad Atlanta is on the defensive side of the ball and remember Matt Ryan was running for his life back in August for preseason. A mismatch in the trenches here. Plus you got to love the fact that after Coach Quinn announced he was taking over the defensive coordinator position the Falcons' D-line responded with zero sacks against a Houston offensive line that had previously allowed 18 sacks in their first four games.
Officially the Rams are listed #16 against the pass but that is deceiving. They are DEAD LAST the last two weeks having been torched by Russell Wilson (understandable) and Jameis Winston (WTF). And when I say torched I'm talking about allowing 85-points and 650 passing yards. Plus, adding insult to injury, the Rams premier member of their secondary, Aquib Talib, is not expected to play because of a rib injury. The Rams are also hurting with Brandon Cooks recent concussion and the on-going issues with Todd Gurley's quad and back. Remember before their 31-3 blowout of Cleveland on Monday night the 49ers had off the previous week so they should be armed and ready. Meanwhile the injury-plagued Rams are going at week #6 without a bye yet. I know Jared Goff has put up sensational statistics the last two games but the lack of a consistent running game has made LA completely one-dimensional. The 49ers opened the season at Tampa and held the Bucs to under 300 total yards in a 31-17 win. The next week they blew out Cincinnati on the road 41-17. Granted maybe not tough competition but still to go east back-to-back weeks and record blowout victories in this league is very rare. The 49ers' offensive line is ranked #1 in the league (fewest sacks) and they are #3 in total defense, #3 versus the run, and #3 versus the pass. Can I just sign up every week for UNDEFEATED UNDERDOGS with that kind of resume and/or rankings? Don't underestimate the tough running from Matt Breida and Raheen Mostert. They are averaging 5.7 yards per carry and Jimmy G has taken just two sacks. Plus you don't think the 49ers remember the two double-digit defeats last year to these Rams, when they lost turnovers 8-0 and had to play without Garoppolo among others. It was SF last year that was ravaged by injuries. This year I am sensing maybe the opposite with LA linebacker Clay Matthews out with a broken jaw. By the way let's not get too caught up in the numbers posted by Goff. Take a look at these numbers. In his last 12 games he has a 14-15 ratio with 12 fumbles. I bet you might not have knows the Rams are 0-9 ATS since 10/9/2005 following a road loss in which they had 300 or more passing yards.
Animal 38-21-1 last 40 Days w/ NCAA Majors missing Texas Tech in OT Monday
4/8: 4* Texas Tech +1 1/2 Loss
4/6: 5* Auburn/UVA 'OVER' 132 Loss
4/5: 4* Liscomb +2 Loss
4/2: 4* Lipscomb -1 WIN
3/31: 4* Ky 'OVER' 142 1/2 WIN
3/30: 4* Gonzaga 'OVER' 136 1/2 WIN
3/29: 4* Duke 'OVER' 143 WIN
3/29: 4 1/2* UNC -5 1/2 Loss
3/28: 4* Oregon +8 1/2 WIN
3/26: 4 1/2* Wichita State +4 1/2 WIN
3/25: 4* West Va -10 Loss
3/24: 4* Houston -6 WIN
3/23 4 1/2* Villanova +3 1/2 Loss
3/23: 4* Kentucky -5 WIN
3/22: 4 1/2* Wisconsin 'OVER' 116 1/2 WIN
3/21: 4* Gonzaga 'OVER' 152 Loss
3/21: 4* Belmont +3 WIN
3/21: 4* Auburn -5 1/2 Loss
3/20: 4* Alabama 'UNDER' 144 Loss thanks to OT
3/19: 4 1/2* Hofstra +9 WIN
3/19: 4* Belmont -3 WIN
3/17: 4 1/2* Auburn/Tenn 'OVER' 144: WIN
3/16: 4 1/2* Wichita State +5 1/2 WIN
3/16: 4* Kentucky -1 1/2 Lose
3/15: 4* Xavier +7 1/2 WIN
3/15: 4* South Carolina +8 Loss by 9
3/15: 4* St Bonaventure 'UNDER' 130 WIN
3/14: 4* Wichita State -11 WIN
3/14: 4* Duquesne +2 Loss
3/14: 4* Fla State +1 WIN
3/13: 4* Texas A&M -3 1/2 WIN
3/13: 4* Air Force -11 WIN
3/12: 4 1/2* Gonzaga -8 1st half/-14 game (split action). Loss
3/12: 4* Georgia Tech +2 Loss
3/11: 4* Hofstra 'OVER' 147 WIN
3/11: 4* Hofstra -10 1/2 Loss
3/10: 4* Penn State -8 WIN
3/9: 4* Washington -2 in the 1st half. Loss
3/9: 4 1/2* Ky 'OVER' 128. Loss
3/9: 4* Boston College +3 1/2 Loss
3/8: 4* Drake 'UNDER' 140. Push. 86 in 2nd half after 54 in 1st half
3/7: 4 1/2* Houston -12 1/2 Loss by 1.5 points
3/6: 4* Clemson 'UNDER' 133 WIN
3/6: 4* Dayton -6 1/2 1st half WIN
3/5: 4* Miami Ohio/Kent 'UNDER' 144 WIN
3/5: 4* Wisconsin-Green Bay -3 WIN
3/3: 4* Texas Tech -4 1/2 1st half WIN
3/2: 4 1/2* South Florida +4 WIN
3/2: 4* Stanford +1 1/2 WIN
3/1: 4 1/2* Penn State +6 1/2 WIN
3/1: 4* Houston 'OVER' 133 1/2 Lose by 1/2-point
3/1: 4* Utah State +1 WIN
2/27: 4* Towson State +3 WIN
2/26: 4* Northern Iowa +1 1/2 WIN
2/26: 4* Nevada 'OVER' 152 1/2 WIN
The Animal has flat out owned Super Bowls:
Animal 13-2 the last seven years w/ Super Bowl sides & totals.
Animal hits final two Football Best Bets w/ New England and Saints 'UNDER'
Animal 64-43 Hoop Majors from Feb 1st thru Title Game
Animal 61-34 NCAA 5*'s last 3 years
Service plays in RED 46-24-4 ATS last 26 days of College Hoops in 2018.
Modified Consensus is flat out scary w/ Big plays in RED:
158-103 Hoops as of 2/27/2019
Bowl Service Plays in RED finish 33-16 on season w/ 10* Totals Club hitting 10* on Clemson 'OVER'
December 31st, 2018. A day that will live in infamy in the Consensus Biz!
Service plays in RED finish 16-6 on New Years Eve & New Years Day combined. That's 33-16 in all Bowls in RED this postseason!
& what a football season J.J. is having. 86-48 in NCAA Football including 10-4 in Bowls!
Analysis of 5* New England in Super Bowl 53:
Do you really believe the best coach and quarterback in the current era is capable of losing consecutive Super Bowls? No chance. Belichick and Brady are facing the youngest head coach in the league in his second-season and a former Pac-12 quarterback in his third season In my mind that is a complete mismatch on the field in terms of in-game adjustments and off the field in terms of preparation. Sean McVay and Jared Goff made great strides in 2018 but I’m a big believer of paying your dues before you get to wear the crown. They will have countless opportunities down the road. Nothing is ever guaranteed in professional sports and while Bill Belichick and Tom Brady could return to this stage again I’m quite certain they don’t want their legacy to possibly end on back-to-back title defeats. The Patriots felt all season they were robbed in Super Bowl 52. Nick Foles was simply magical but by the same token it was also the first time in the Brady/Belichick era the Patriots surpassed 500 total yards (613 actually) and lost a football game. They’ve had to live with that for a year and there is no tougher competitor in the game, than Brady, who 366 days ago personally passed for 500 yards against the Eagles and LOST. We all watched Conference Championship Sunday. I don’t know how many times Brady audibled and changed the play at the line of scrimmage. I don’t recall seeing that once from Goff. Experience makes a big difference. I’ve heard for two weeks that it could easily be the Chiefs against the Saints. Sure New England got a significant break when Dee Ford lined up off-sides. But the Patriots also had a 524-290 advantage in total yards. Who goes to Arrowhead and outgains the Chiefs by 234- yards with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback? It just doesn’t happen….but it did. Total plays New England 94 KC 47. Plus don’t forget that was also the second time the Patriots scalped the Chiefs this season and also improved their record to 6-0 versus 2018 playoff qualifying teams. The Rams trailed the Saints 13-0 in the first quarter and 20-10 in the third quarter. I bet you could count on one hand the amount of times New Orleans squandered a double-digit lead with Drew Brees at quarterback in the Superdome. It just doesn’t happen…but it did. However the Rams and Saints were almost statistically even and the game was decided by a non-call for either pass interference or helmet to helmet contact. Pick your choice. Either way while it could be Mahomes vs Brees it really should be Brady versus Brees. The Rams have no business being here and I am not certain they could have beat Chicago three weeks ago if the Bears weren’t upset by Foles and company.
Tom Brady dropped back to pass 90 times in the two playoff games. Not only was he not sacked he was only hit three times. Think the New England offensive line is peaking? Consider this: The Chargers had zero sacks on Brady. In their previous playoff game they recorded 7 SACKS at Baltimore. Kansas City had four sacks on Andew Luck and the Colts did not have a first down until less than two minutes to go in the first half. If you recall all season we heard how the Colts were vastly improved because of their offensive line had protected Luck, who took just 18 sacks in the regular-season and just one fewer than Brees. Yet the Chargers and Chiefs didn’t record one sack on Brady and reached him three times. Note: KC was tied with Pittsburgh for the league lead in sacks with 52. Meanwhile in two playoff games the Rams have just three sacks and one of those games was versus Dak Prescott, who hit the turf a league-high 56 times this year. Do you really believe the Rams are going to get to Tom Brady? Aaron Donald was named the defensive player of the year for the second-straight season on Saturday. Yet his personal total for tackles, both solo and assisted, is just 3 ½. For a guy that allegedly dominates a game I find it hard to fathom his total for tackles is that low in the most important game of the year.
When New England has any semblance of balance they are virtually unbeatable. It’s amazing going game-by-game through their season this year and see the impact Sony Michel has had on the Patriots. There is a direct correlation between Michel’s unproductive games and Patriot defeats. In the five New England losses, Michel had 34, 50, 31, 57, and 59-yards. In the six 100-yard games Michel posted the Patriots beat the Chiefs twice and won the other four games by margins of 13, 12, 14, and 31-points. It’s interesting the Rams are here in part because of their rushing defense limiting Dallas and New Orleans to a combined 98-yards on the ground. What’s strange is Los Angeles was a lousy 23rd against the run in the regular-season and get this, the Rams allowed a LEAGUE-HIGH 5.1 yards per carry. Michel ran for 242-yards in the two-playoff games scoring five touchdowns. Meanwhile who knows the real condition of Todd Gurley? He carried the ball four times versus the Saints for 10-yards and caught one pass for five yards. Gurley accounted for over 1,800 all-purpose yards from the line of scrimmage this season. If he’s not 100 percent the Rams are in serious trouble. At this point you would have to believe the Patriots have a huge edge with Michel. James White has 19 receptions in the two playoff games. Rob Gronkowski should be in his best condition in months considering he had six catches versus Kansas City for 79-yards after hauling in just five passes in his four previous games combined! Julian Edelman has been the model of consistency as a wide receiver. He has caught an amazing six catches or more and/or a touchdown in 13/14 games this season.
The Patriots have covered nine of their last 12 playoff games. Brady is nine years older than Rams head coach Sean McVay. Goff’s passing numbers after the week eight injury to slot receiver Cooper Kupp dramatically declined. Goff didn’t reach the 200-yard plateau passing in three of his last six games. We all know Coach Belichick is the master at removing opponent’s primary weapons in key situations. Two weeks ago Tyreek Hill had just one catch for 42-yards. I suspect he could really blanket Brandin Cooks, who caught 65-passes for the Patriots a season ago. And it’s not like the Patriots haven’t faced Robert Woods in the past considering he used to be a member of the Buffalo Bills and faced the Patriots twice a season. I suspect Belichick will really shuffle the defensive line with stunts to confuse Goff much like he did against Mahomes.
Overall I thought the 2018 was a down year for the NFL. There was a dramatic decline in terms of quality of play and despite the argument the first six-weeks of too much scoring and constant complaints of defenders not being able to defend, the final eight weeks were rather boring to this handicapper and fan. The officiating was in prevent-mode not allowing teams to consistently advance the pigskin and the zebras in a sense became the star of the show way too often. The league is going to have to address this in the off-season because officiating declined dramatically in 2018. But in my opinion the most-precise performance that I witnessed on both sides of the ball was New England versus the LA Chargers in the divisional round. If you witnessed that game the Patriots executed as well as anybody had all season both on offense and defense while turning Philip Rivers into a crybaby. I could easily envision Jared Goff having a horrible game in Super Bowl 53, particularly if Todd Gurley is not a factor and the Rams getting behind early. Every New England Super Bowl has been decided by one score or eight points or less. Not this time. Patriots by double-digits and I don’t think this is going to be close.
HOOPS, HOOPS, HOOPS 2018 recap:
Maingate 21-0-1 from March 7th thru NCAA Title game 25*/15* plays
Animal 64-43 Hoop Majors from Feb 1st thru Title Game
Animal 61-34 NCAA 5*'s last 3 years
Service plays in RED 46-24-4 ATS last 26 days of College Hoops in 2018
Any questions contact Mark @ animalsports@msn.com
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I get a kick out of these "analysts'. So many this week have suggested Pittsburgh will be better without Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. Really? Because these same guys used to throws heaps of praise on both Brown and Bell. Weren't they 2/3rd's of what used to be called the "Killer B's"? All I know is it sure didn't take long for the Super Bowl champs to scoop up what was called a "distraction" in Pittsburgh and a few clowns have Bell as a possible MVP candidate. This isn't to say JuJu Smith Schuster and James Conner aren't legitimate weapons. They are and the Steelers are certainly good enough to win the division and compete in the playoffs. But to suggest they are better without two guys that can change a game in a heartbeat is silly. Remember, it's between the lines that count. The media is there to always to blow stuff off the field out of proportion. It's what they do for ratings and gives the countless number of unnecessary talking heads something to babble about. Can you imagine how Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon felt yesterday morning when the news came down. They have to be drooling about 1-on-1 coverage now because what safety in this league isn't going to be shading Antonio Brown's direction next week? Don't be surprised if we see Gronk making a comeback now too. Pittsburgh is 0-5 at Foxboro since 2003. Ben Rothlisberger has won 157 games in his career and two Super Bowls and a sure Hall of Famer. He's 0-4 against Tom Brady in New England and lost here 37-16 in the 2016 AFC Championship game. “It’s not fun there,” Roethlisberger told reporters in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. “They’re the best for a reason, coaches and players. And it’s not just like we’ve had a problem with them — the league’s had a problem with them. They’re that dominant. Playing (the Patriots) at home is hard enough. Going to their place is almost impossible.” Since 2001, the Patriots have won an NFL-best 84.4 percent of their home games (141-26) in the regular season and playoffs — more than 10 percentage points higher than the second-place Baltimore Ravens (71.8 percent). Of those 26 losses, four came with either Cassel or Jacoby Brissett behind center, and two more came in meaningless Week 17 games Brady didn’t finish. Brady has enjoyed similar success against Pittsburgh regardless of venue (11-3 in 14 career matchups), but Roethlisberger got the upper hand in the teams’ most recent meeting. Last December the Steelers beat the Patriots 17-10 at Heinz Field holding Tom Brady and company to three-points over the final three quarters. But we saw in preseason, Belichick usually gets his revenge. He beat two former assistants that that got the best of him last year in the regular season. And THAT WAS IN PRESEASON! Even "Big Ben" admits it's going to be tough to duplicate last December. “You’re not going to surprise the Patriots twice, I promise you that,” Roethlisberger told reporters. “… You’re not going to get over on the Patriots twice. That coaching staff’s pretty good, and their players are pretty darn good, too. So we’ll have to figure some new things out.” Thanks to my pre-programmed Amazon stick, I was able to watch all four New England preseason games with the local commentators. Granted it was hard to get through all the "homer" BS from the guys in the booth, but it was rewarding in the sense that I could see the depth on this New England team and made me really appreciate how difficult it is to make that roster. They interchange defenders better than any team I've seen. Everybody knows their role and Belichick doesn't put up with shit from yo-yo's. So Antonio Brown will behave or it's one year only. Before last December the last time the Steelers beat the Patriots was 2011. I can easily make a case that New England and Seattle are the two toughest places to win as a visiting team. So I don't mind making the Patriots and Seahawks the Majors on the opening Sunday of the NFL. Glad to be back guys!
Analysis of Warriors -4 in NBA finale:
I didn't want to lay double-digits with Golden State in the first two games and split. Then in game #3 my gut told me not to trust the Cavaliers over four quarters and use them early. Unfortunately they miraculously blew an eight-point lead with two minutes to go in the first quarter @ -1 and the end result was a push and naturally covered the first half. As a buddy who is an on-line oddsmaker said "it's amazing how much respect a home team gets when trailing 2-0" referring to the fact the Cavs were actually favored in the first quarter and pick'em in the first half in game #3 despite being an underdog in the game of more than three-points. Needless to say, quite unusual, and only in the playoffs. Now another strange intangible tonight. For the first time in this series the two teams play with just one day off so depth may play a factor and the return of Andre Iguodala to the lineup is obviously huge. In addition I thought Cleveland wasted terrific games by Kevin Love and Rodney Hood, although despite his scoring, Hood was -12 when in the game (worst on the team). LeBron spoke yesterday about the IQ of Golden State and I would concur. Having a guy like Iguodala back makes a significant impact. He was +14 in game #3. Golden State won by eight points despite Curry and Thompson a combined 7-of-27 for 25.9 percent. I doubt that happens again. LeBron did everything he could do to get others involved and I thought he had terrific help in game #3. But it still didn't matter. Now Golden State is a game away from accomplishing something unique in this rivalry: a four-game sweep in the finals. That should be incentive tonight and Durant sure did have that look in his eye of an assassin ready to finish the job. I figured if the Cavaliers had any fight left it would have showed up in game #3 and it did for all but the final two minutes before talent prevailed as usual. I wonder how many Cavaliers tonight really want to extend this series and travel back to the bay area for a game #5. LeBron played all but 70 seconds of game #3. How fatigued must he be playing on one day of rest with his three-point shot abandoning his arsenal on Wednesday night. Curry hit nine three-pointers in game #2 and then was 1-for-10 from beyond the arc two nights ago. Yet the Warriors still beat the Cavaliers for the 10th time in the last 11 meetings. I know Cleveland is 7-2 in elimination games since 2015 and that includes three wins in these playoffs. Last year Cleveland forced a fifth game in this exact same scenario and hit 24 three-point shots in game #4. Golden State will undoubtedly be a double-digit favorite in game #5 should it be necessary and since I have yet to take them this series, I'll back them tonight at this discounted price and figure while it won't be easy, talent should once again prevail in the end. I caught -4 at 5dimes.com.
Last 3 years Animal NCAA Hoop BEST BETS rated 5* or 4 1/2* are 61-34 ATS
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Season #40 and what a journey!
So my 1st night in the biz was in October of 1980. Game #1 of the Kansas City/Philadelphia World Series. That was opening night for "Dial Sports" in a garage in Huntingdon Valley, PA and right outside of Philly. I was the 'producer' and the late Mickey Charles was the on-air host. I never would have dreamed a 21-year old kid who loved to write and gamble would still be in the business four decades later. But once I found the passion, it was unstoppable. I'm still as hungry as ever trying to find winners. Let's make season #40 very, very special!
Mark TheRealAnimal.com animalsports@msn.com
2019 Modified Consensus-BASKETBALL..it's here!
Okay maybe not the entire panel with everybody beginning on January 8th or the day after Clemson plays Alabama for the national championship but a solid representation as well and the sensational results are detailed on the home page. Any questions, contact Mark at animalsports@msn.com.
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